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A renewal projection is only as useful as the assumptions behind it. Follow the build from claims experience to expected and maximum cost, then change the assumptions and see what moves.
Illustrative sample: a fictional 300-employee group. Fully synthetic data. Every formula visible.
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Compare modeled expected and maximum cost per employee per month, the funding corridor, and the loss ratio.
Inspect the inputs behind trend, completion, plan adjustments, credibility, stop-loss, and fixed costs.
Follow monthly enrollment and claims, with large-claim pooling at a $75,000 specific deductible in the sample.
Move from adjusted experience through the credibility blend with a manual benchmark, then add stop-loss and fixed costs.
Start by changing the trend assumption. Follow it through the rate build. Which part of the final number moved, and which costs stayed fixed?
General information, not insurance, legal, or tax advice.